A few days ago, Professor Walter Ian Lipkin, director of the Center for Infection and Immunity and an expert in infectious diseases at Columbia University School of Public Health, known as the “world’s most famous virus hunter,” accepted the well-known host Yang Lan’s advice at Columbia University. The interview answered questions about the new crown pneumonia epidemic.

As early as 2003, Professor Lipkin was invited to Beijing to help China fight SARS (SARS). He and Academician Zhong Nanshan also met and became friends. On January 28 this year, Professor Lipkin was once again invited to China to discuss the epidemic.

On February 24, 2020, Professor Lipkin accepted an interview with Yang Lan and talked about his own views on the new crown virus.

1. There is no evidence that the new coronavirus is man-made

If you want to know where the virus came from, you have to look at its genetic sequence and see how similar it is to other known viruses. This virus is most similar to a virus discovered by the Wuhan Institute of Virology in the mid-1990s. In terms of the percentage of identity with the bat virus, it may be a bat virus.

This virus has differences in important areas of its genetic structure, indicating that it has adapted to humans or human-like species and is allowed to move in this way before it achieves effective human-to-human transmission. Therefore, we believe that this virus exists in bats, may be in contact with animals, may be in the wild animal market, or may be infected humans.

The virus has adapted to other species in the process of continuous growth. When it becomes capable of causing human transmission, the next link in the transmission chain occurs, and it completes the jump from bats to humans. Now it is a human virus, not a bat virus.

My colleagues and I believe that there is no evidence that this virus was created in the Wuhan Institute of Virology or was accidentally released. We believe that it originated in nature.

2. The South China Seafood Market may be a secondary spread

It is very likely that this virus has spread in Wuhan or even Hubei, and the connection with the seafood market is not so direct. Perhaps the second transmission occurred in the South China Seafood Market in Wuhan. It is likely that this virus has already started earlier. Spread.

3. It may recur like flu

It is difficult to know what will happen when the virus first appears. It has a lifestyle like human beings. But I think if there is no certain vaccine, it is likely to be with us every year like the flu.

is seasonal, which is also a possibility. Because the indoor environment is relatively closed, people breathe closer together, and the air is relatively dirty, and there are more floating objects that the virus can attach to. As the temperature rises, people begin to reduce the time they spend indoors, reducing the chance of cross-spread, and the spread of the virus will not be too far, so we will see a decline in infectivity.

But when the transmission rate drops in some areas, the transmission rate in other areas may increase. Just like we have flu season, it may appear repeatedly.

4. Too many people develop vaccines at the same time, which may waste a lot of resources

Traditionally, the development of vaccines is not counted in "months" but in "years". The question is can we shorten this time? I think we can, but it depends on many factors.

Unfortunately, there are too many people trying to develop a vaccine at the same time, and we may waste a lot of resources. So I think we should choose some and invest heavily in them, I think this will be what will happen.

5. The new coronavirus will not be the last

This virus seems to be much more contagious, and is undoubtedly more contagious than MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome). MERS is a virus that spreads from bats to camels and then to humans.

There are very few cases of communication between people. SARS is spread from person to person, but it is not as easy as this virus. This is truly an unprecedented challenge for mankind, and it will not be the last.

　　Since HIV, we have encountered SARS, NIPHA (Nipah virus) and MERS, as well as this new coronavirus, dengue fever and Zika virus. All of these emerging infectious diseases basically come from wild animals, enter the human body to adapt to humans, and then become able to spread directly or indirectly from person to person.

Therefore, these are the problems that we need to solve in the future. We must do something to prevent this from happening again and again, such as closing the wildlife market. I heard that (China) has made the decision to close the wildlife market. This is great, and it is what is urgently needed.

　 Another thing we need to do is share data. There is no such thing as the New York virus or the Wuhan virus. The virus is the common enemy of mankind. We need to unite and cope with the world. This also means that we must bypass some intellectual property and sovereignty issues, as well as greed, and all other factors that hinder the normal spread of information, which is necessary to control the virus that threatens the entire world.